Revealing value for a leading Biotech: forecasting a 9-figure product-line acquisition
At a glance
A growing biotech wanted to evaluate the ten-year value of acquiring a complementary product line, in whole or in part. We built flexible forecasting models and executive-friendly dashboards and workbooks using R, dbt, PostgreSQL, Tableau and AWS. Our client was able to examine numerous scenarios at several valuations under a variety of future conditions to confidently acquire products that will maximize shareholder value.
what we delivered
Powerful and flexible forecasts, dashboards, and scenario modeling analyses for rapid investigation and valuation of future scenarios by the product acquisition team.
Advanced models and hierarchical forecasts constructed from salesforce assumptions in collaboration with the acquisition team and used for multiple board-level presentations, enabling executives to confidently allocate capital for their 9-figure acquisition.
Robust data mart built by integrating and harmonizing multiple disparate data sources iteratively to power forecasting based on key business objectives.
Rapid implementation of shared insights
We worked closely with a leading biotech company to map a course of action to accelerate growth by acquisition of a synergistic product line. The client requested expert data-driven forecasts coupled with recommendations to determine which product assortment would optimize profits when combined with their sales and marketing capabilities. Throughout the multiple phases of this strategic forecasting project, we worked in frequent consultation with the Finance, Sales, and M&A/Development teams.
After the kickoff, we rapidly gathered and integrated primary data sources into a project data mart. We used this to create broad overview Tableau dashboards to explore the historic product performance across locations, over time, by product and product group, by indication, across competitors and by channel. We built several forecast models in the R statistical programming language to give high-level estimates of steady-state performance by channel, product and indication and incorporated these into the project data mart driving the first-phase Tableau dashboards.
With the Finance team, we jointly presented our insights from the initial phase at an in-person executive retreat, answering questions, reviewing opportunities and brainstorming ideas. Based on this presentation and the Executive team’s feedback regarding viable levels of investment, we identified relevant factors for the next phase of the analysis such as sales growth, marketing spend, and partnership options. We then mapped out a schedule for modeling more advanced and realistic scenarios based on the constraints they outlined.
“The YakData team's rapid efforts at data cleanup, regrouping and rationalization made the initial acquisition discussions a success.”
— Lead Business Analyst
Iterative learning and enhancement for real-world simulations
Working in partnership with the M&A and Sales leads, we developed R models of both systemic and external factors impacting sales. The CFO specified realistic constraints to the range of values acceptable for the variables used in the models, which we integrated into the initial core forecast Tableau dashboards.
To further enhance the utility and flexibility of the models and forecasts, we incorporated cash-flow model formulas from the CFO into the project data mart and displayed these in the Tableau dashboards. Additionally, we circled back, further enhancing the project data mart forecasts using advanced geographic hierarchical forecast models. We maintained the ability for the users to switch between the initial forecasts or the advanced hierarchical forecasts in the scenario dashboards, as needed.
The client asked for assistance in preparing a critical presentation for the Board of Directors. They required a clear, concise 30-minute slide deck that highlighted the inclusion of executive assumptions and identified key risk factors and likely results. We worked with the M&A and Finance teams to build this slide deck for the Board’s review. We also prepared a wide range of potential Q&A slides that might be useful at this meeting.
"These insights made the board rethink optimal capital allocation between salesforce growth with partial acquisition versus acquisition of the entire product line."
— VP of Finance
A clear path for acquisition decisions
As their acquisition progressed, we added KPI dashboards to monitor their investments and monitor future growth of the acquired product lines. We simultaneously worked closely with the IT team to begin integrating the project data mart into their enterprise data warehouse.
As the acquisition proceeded, the client evaluated the growth of their new product lines while organizing and informing the sales teams across multiple geographies. We continued to provide critical path analyses of complex, high-value questions that were beyond the expertise of the M&A and Finance teams.
"The models your team built of systemic versus external factors that impact price sensitivity provided the critical information needed to determine which long-tail items to retain."
— Director of Pricing
Details and Illustrations in this client success story have been modified to maintain client confidentiality.